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Exponential Technologies and Their Impact on Business

by Francisco Santolo

Do exponential technologies like AI, Robotics and Blockchain impact businesses unpredictably? Explore Moore's Law, the Gartner Curve, and the 6Ds.

Exponential Technologies and Their Impact on Business

Are exponential technologies unpredictable and do they represent an incomprehensible threat to our businesses? At first glance, this perception might seem valid, but the reality is more nuanced and, to some extent, predictable.

Exponential technologies, characterized by their rapid evolution and disruptive potential, follow an identifiable pattern. Exemplified by Moore's Law, these technologies multiply their capacity year after year while reducing their costs.

This phenomenon can be better understood with the 6Ds model: Digitalization, Deception, Disruption, Dematerialization, Depreciation, and Democratization, which I explain in the following video.

Above all, the Gartner Curve, an essential tool for any strategist or entrepreneur, offers a graphical representation of the life cycle of these emerging technologies. Updated annually, it provides a clear view of the stages and evolution times of each technology. Not understanding these tools can leave businesses at a significant disadvantage, leading them to costly but avoidable timing errors.

For an updated version and to draw precise conclusions, I recommend searching on Google for "Gartner Hype Cycle 2024".

Exploring trends like the Metaverse, NFTs, Blockchain, and Generative Artificial Intelligence is a journey full of ups and downs. The initial euphoria can give way to disillusionment, but eventually, these technologies reach a state of sustainable productivity.

For business leaders and entrepreneurs, understanding these cycles is crucial. The adoption of emerging technologies should not be impulsive. It is essential to evaluate use cases and long-term viability, avoiding both disillusionment and premature abandonment. Technologies evolve and mature over time, offering renewed opportunities.

Business models must be flexible and evolve in parallel with these technologies. Disruption does not happen overnight but through a series of profitable business models that expand into new segments. Preparation for the mass adoption of technology, counterintuitively, is a gradual process.

It is essential to be alert to the opportunities that arise in the illumination and democratization stage of the Gartner Curve. Generative Artificial Intelligence is an example of how technologies can gradually find their way to productivity and make a significant impact on business approaches.

In summary, exponential technologies are not as unpredictable as we might think. With proper guidance and a deep understanding of their life cycle, entrepreneurs can not only survive but thrive in this era of constant change.

Do you want to deepen your understanding of exponential technologies and how to implement them in your business? I invite you to join our Online Course in Entrepreneurship and Innovation and become part of Scalabl´s global network of more than 2500 entrepreneurs worldwide.

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